- Study integral risk management at a large scale, involving stakeholders, and focus on the interphase between different incidents, changes of behavior, domino effects and uncertainties.
- Train crews and commanders in decision-making and communication in uncertain, dynamic, unexpected scenarios, adapting tempos and synchronizing activities with other agents. Cultivate this kind of mentality. Facilitate the improvement of existing doctrine.
- Understand probabilistic forecast of different scenarios, compare alternatives and have contingency plans.
#dominoeffects #ptsd #decisionlag #humanfactors #simultaneity
(company, project, organization)
|Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies||Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kroeger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E. (2012): European Physical Journal-Special Topics, 214(1), 571–595||Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of “resilient systems”, can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.|
|Preparing for complex interdependent risks||Cavallo, Antonella; Ireland, Vernon (2014): International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 9, 181–193||The uncertainty posed by natural and human-made disasters arises from both known risks and a range of unforeseeable risks, some of which may be novel, not having been observed before. These interconnected risks may evolve over short periods of time and may feed into one another. In a network of multiple causes and effects, such risks may not be foreseeable at the disaster preparedness level, and may only be observed at the time of disaster response. This creates a higher level of complexity and requires new approaches with individual organizations and members needing to make decisions outside predefined frameworks and hierarchical command control structures while still operating in the ethos of their organizations. This study advocates the need for disaster preparedness strategies to go beyond linear approaches to risk management. This is necessary in order to better address complex interdependent risks where such risks may be novel or unforeseen and which may connect in a cascading manner. The resulting causal network needs to be addressed with a networked approach to enrich existing linear approaches by recognizing the need for an interconnected holistic approach to deal appropriately with interconnected risk factors. This paper Lakes an interpretive perspective rather than the more typical positivist one System of Systems (SUS) and complex systems thinking were used to inform a sense making framework to distinguish between approaches to known/knowable and unknown risks. Finally, the paper reports on how this framework was used in South Australia on three different scales of the SoS: community, NGOs and government. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.|
|Crisis Management Simulations – Narrative Inquiry Into Transformative Learning||Clemson, David; Samara, Khalid (2013): Proceedings of the 12th European Conference on Research Methodology for Business and Management Studies, 100–107||Crisis Management Simulations are identified as enhancing transformative learning behaviour patterns as observed in large groups. This paper reviews a study of over 200 crisis management simulation participants over 4 years who have represented their experiences through reflective narrative accounts. The specific focus is on co-locating the deeper level narratives of transformation, including the development of a coding schema based on Mezirow’s Transformative Learning Theory. A series of approaches developed and applied by the authors is illustrated, also noting that this shows some of the highest reported incidence of deeper-level transformative learning amongst large groups, building on the research of the lead author, in the region of 80%. The relevant literature within transformative learning, sense-making, rhizomic narrative inquiry, simulations, sustainability, complexity and crisis management is used to provide context for this research into the phenomena of transformative learning. Analysis of guided inquiry, co-operative inquiry (Dionysian and Apollonian) and reflective narratives creates a differentiation between ‘straightforward’ transformation and ‘deeper level’ transformation which we highlight and use rhizomic narrative inquiry to explore aspects of performativity and authenticity. Some of the emerging themes from this research which we will discuss focus on anxiety and leadership style within crisis management simulations, the evidence of very rapid mimesis in situations of high uncertainty and high anxiety, transpersonal transformative psychological perspectives, particularly those informed by the work of Jung and Hillman. Ethical conduct within business focused crisis management simulations – learner-centred approaches to generating codes of conduct and ethical standards, levels of self-discipline and adherence to group-generated participatory codes compared to external regulation Through a cycle of addressing the issues of ethics, sustainability and risk management in a dynamic learner-centred way enhancing their abilities to handle complex situations which they are likely to encounter in real-world business contexts, we are able to conclude that crisis management simulations are a highly effective method of creating a transformative learning environment with larger groups, especially when used in conjunction with reflective processing and narrative inquiry.|
|Descision Support System for Crisis Management Planning||Di Mauro, Carmelo; Nordvik, J. P. (2010): Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks: Decision Tools and Application for Port Security, 57||Governance of the transport of hazardous materials requires complex decision making regarding regulation, routing, land-use, and resources for emergency response. Decision-makers need to balance the needs of various actors, such as industry and the public; they must take a multi-hazard approach, they must take into account the spatial dimension of the problem, and they must know the vulnerability of their territory. Therefore, they must have appropriate decision support tools that facilitate the required integration of information. During the last few years the European Commission DG Joint Research Centre developed a number of such tools. Following the general phases of a typical risk management cycle, the presentation will illustrate their main characteristics and analyze their application in the safety and security domain. This paper presents the main results gained during the definition and the implementation of such systems. It also comments on the main limits and gaps imposed by data unavailability or interoperability constraints.|
|How prepared is prepared enough?||Jongejan, Ruben B.; Helsloot, Ira; Beerens, Ralf J. J.; Vrijling, Jan K. (2011): Disasters, 35(1), 130–142||Decisions about disaster preparedness are rarely informed by cost-benefit analyses. This paper presents an economic model to address the thorny question, ‘how prepared is prepared enough?’ Difficulties related to the use of cost-benefit analysis in the field of disaster management concern the tension between the large number of high-probability events that can be handled by a single emergency response unit and the small number of low-probability events that must be handled by a large number of them. A further special feature of disaster management concerns the opportunity for cooperation between different emergency response units. To account for these issues, we introduce a portfolio approach. Our analysis shows that it would be useful to define disaster preparedness not in terms of capacities, but in terms of the frequency with which response capacity is expected to fall short.|
|Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands||Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira (2014): Disasters, 38(3), 610–635||A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the top strategic decision-making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.|
|Disaster management||Lettieri, Emanuele; Masella, Cristina; Radaelli, Giovanni (2009): Disaster Prevention and Management, 18(2), 117–136||Purpose – The paper aims to discuss a systematic review of the literature about disaster management within the period 1980-2006 Design/methodology/approach – The research protocol is based on the methodology that is commonly used in healthcare for analysing the literature and provides a state-of-art medical discipline The paper presents both it descriptive analysis and a thematic analysis in order to provide a state-of-art of international literature The research protocol is provided in order to make transparent the review process Findings – The descriptive analysis highlights the peculiarities of the literature in terms of attention paid during the years, country of provenience and clusters of content of the selected papers The thematic analysis deepens the content of the papers formalising the state of art Research limitations/implications – The review considered only academic journals and peer-reviewed published papers, excluding working papers and books Practical implications – Through both the analyses the authors argue for scholars in disaster management specific streams for further research and for providing practitioners with it state of art of disaster management discipline Originality/value – The paper is original and is aimed at translating to the disaster management, discipline the methodology of the systematic review commonly used in healthcare disciplines|
|Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios||Mazzorana, B.; Huebl, J.; Fuchs, S. (2009): Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(1), 145–159||During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.|
|On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions||Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Hirpa, Feyera A.; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta; Salamon, Peter; Brakenridge, Robert; Pappenberger, Florian; Groeve, Tom de (2015): Remote Sensing, 7(11), 15702–15728||Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012-2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. Results reveal that: (1) general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2) large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3) the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.|
|European Cooperation on Future Crises||Rhinard, Mark (2009): Review of Policy Research, 26(4), 439–455||As crises grow more transnational in origin and effect, managing them effectively will require international cooperation. This article explores the dilemmas inherent to producing common crisis management capacities across national governments. Drawing on the literature related to “international public goods,” the article builds an approach for understanding these dilemmas through the lens of collective action and the perverse incentives associated therein. The article applies this approach to cooperation in Europe on an issue that typifies the transnational crisis-the spread of communicable disease-and highlights obstacles to European Union ambitions to build a robust system for disease surveillance and control. Having isolated the obstacles, the article then identifies solutions to facilitate cooperation toward more effectively producing the good in question.|
|Process analysis, modeling and simulation for crisis management||Rousseaux, Francis; Lhoste, Kevin (2008): Iwaise 2008: International Workshop on Advanced Information Systems for Enterprises, Proceedings, 41||The paper aims to present a real experience of designing a Control, Command, Communication, and Intelligence system to support crisis management through a three step business process. A better understanding of what is a crisis and a model of knowledge gathering appeared within the system development. We will explain this particular business process management through the successful example of the CHEOPS Project. When a company wants to offer a new tender for its clients in the geopolitical crisis management domain, it has to solve a dilemma. Firstly it has to build rapidly, a functional product in order to take a place on this well discussed market but on the long term this strategy isn’t sufficient. An incremental design process is required in order to organize an architecture, to bring out functional and ergonomic specifications, and to structure an ontological application such as a multi-agent cooperation model. Furthermore a reflection on what a crisis is, on the values level which helps to make the model more accurate can be added. We will explain this three step business process through the successful example of the CHEOPS Project. Firstly, we will describe its risk management system, then we will put the emphasis on its multi-agent cooperation model, and lastly, we will present a situation analysis as a constructive modeling process and we will finish with an analysis on the CHEOPS project business management and its possibilities of evolution.|
|Dual system for management of natural and anthropogenic emergencies and its training||Sevilla, G. A.; Acquesta, A. D.; Giraldez, G. M. (2007): Management of Natural Resources, Sustainable Development and Ecological Hazards, 99, 423–432||Natural or anthropogenic emergencies change the way in which a community works, generating crisis situations and preventing the community from recovering from the impact by itself. These emergencies may destroy power, communication and drinkable water supply networks, routes of access, engineering works, crops, factories, homes and human lives. Frequently institutions are forced to respond to those situations with information that is not complete, up-to-date or reliable. Dissimilar organizations must work jointly and use the material and human assets available in an effective way. Decisions that have a direct effect on the lives of hundreds or even thousands of people are made within short periods of time and with a high degree of uncertainty. This work aims at approaching the problem in an integral way, presenting the design of an informatics system that enables crisis management as well as training for the members of the organizations involved in the response to a natural or anthropogenic emergency. We propose an Internet-supported multi-user system with tools that enable the registering, follow-up and monitoring for support requirements, access to an integrated database of available material and human assets, communication and coordination resources among participants, phenomenon mathematic model support for analysis and prognosis, and an external simulation engine to build and carry out emergency management exercises.|