A FRAMEWORK FOR THE APPLICATION OF GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS TO THE PROBLEM OF PLANNING FOR CATASTROPHIC EVENTS

Name of the provider (company name or main contact name), or FIRE IN ID ? BELARDO, S.; HARRALD, J.

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Scope, rationale, context: general description. Precise here if this technology is currently use (eg. company name or contact info) During the last 2 years the U.S. has endured extensive property damage and loss of life from the Hurricane Hugo and Loma Prieta natural disasters and expended billions of dollars in the aftermath of a major oil spill in Prince William Sound. Ineffective precrisis planning was, according to most observers, a primary factor contributing to the failure of these response efforts. The improvement of our capability to plan for and to manage the crisis response activities required when natural or technological disasters occur is a fundamental challenge to our technological society. The synergistic interaction of multidisciplined experts is essential to the creation of scenarios which specify a richness of detail and to the identification of critical decisions and problems which must be anticipated by the crisis manager. This paper discusses the application of decision analysis methods and decision support tools to the development of a scenario driven planning process. The methodology and structured group interactions on which this technology should be based have been demonstrated and are discussed in the context of planning for earthquakes and catastrophic oil spills. The improvement of the contingency planning process through the application of Group Decision Support Technology could provide a new foundation for the management of the response to catastrophic natural and technological events.

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During the last 2 years the U.S. has endured extensive property damage and loss of life from the Hurricane Hugo and Loma Prieta natural disasters and expended billions of dollars in the aftermath of a major oil spill in Prince William Sound. Ineffective precrisis planning was, according to most observers, a primary factor contributing to the failure of these response efforts. The improvement of our capability to plan for and to manage the crisis response activities required when natural or technological disasters occur is a fundamental challenge to our technological society. The synergistic interaction of multidisciplined experts is essential to the creation of scenarios which specify a richness of detail and to the identification of critical decisions and problems which must be anticipated by the crisis manager. This paper discusses the application of decision analysis methods and decision support tools to the development of a scenario driven planning process. The methodology and structured group interactions on which this technology should be based have been demonstrated and are discussed in the context of planning for earthquakes and catastrophic oil spills. The improvement of the contingency planning process through the application of Group Decision Support Technology could provide a new foundation for the management of the response to catastrophic natural and technological events.

TRL of the proposed solution - Innovation stage (if applicable) Not applicable

Web addresses/URL of flyers and information 10.1109/17.165425; A1992JV46000014

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published in 1992

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