Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

Name of the provider (company name or main contact name), or FIRE IN ID ? Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

CCC addressed

Scope, rationale, context: general description. Precise here if this technology is currently use (eg. company name or contact info) A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.

If applicable, choose the relevant working group (Ctrl touch to select more than one)

Please select the relevant item

Short description of the solution. Technical details if relevant. Keywords.

A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.

TRL of the proposed solution - Innovation stage (if applicable) Not applicable

Web addresses/URL of flyers and information 10.1111/disa.12059

Expected/scheduled future developments

published in 2014

Generic comments

-