Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands
Name of the provider (company name or main contact name), or FIRE IN ID ? Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands
Scope, rationale, context: general description. Precise here if this technology is currently use (eg. company name or contact info) A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.
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TRL of the proposed solution - Innovation stage (if applicable) Not applicable
Web addresses/URL of flyers and information 10.1111/disa.12059
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