Preparing for complex interdependent risks

Name of the provider (company name or main contact name), or FIRE IN ID ? Cavallo, Antonella; Ireland, Vernon

CCC addressed

Scope, rationale, context: general description. Precise here if this technology is currently use (eg. company name or contact info) The uncertainty posed by natural and human-made disasters arises from both known risks and a range of unforeseeable risks, some of which may be novel, not having been observed before. These interconnected risks may evolve over short periods of time and may feed into one another. In a network of multiple causes and effects, such risks may not be foreseeable at the disaster preparedness level, and may only be observed at the time of disaster response. This creates a higher level of complexity and requires new approaches with individual organizations and members needing to make decisions outside predefined frameworks and hierarchical command control structures while still operating in the ethos of their organizations. This study advocates the need for disaster preparedness strategies to go beyond linear approaches to risk management. This is necessary in order to better address complex interdependent risks where such risks may be novel or unforeseen and which may connect in a cascading manner. The resulting causal network needs to be addressed with a networked approach to enrich existing linear approaches by recognizing the need for an interconnected holistic approach to deal appropriately with interconnected risk factors. This paper Lakes an interpretive perspective rather than the more typical positivist one System of Systems (SUS) and complex systems thinking were used to inform a sense making framework to distinguish between approaches to known/knowable and unknown risks. Finally, the paper reports on how this framework was used in South Australia on three different scales of the SoS: community, NGOs and government.

If applicable, choose the relevant working group (Ctrl touch to select more than one) Search & Rescue Emergency Response Structure Fires Landscape Fires Crisis Mitigation Natural Hazard Mitigation CBRNE

Please select the relevant item 289

Short description of the solution. Technical details if relevant. Keywords.

The uncertainty posed by natural and human-made disasters arises from both known risks and a range of unforeseeable risks, some of which may be novel, not having been observed before. These interconnected risks may evolve over short periods of time and may feed into one another. In a network of multiple causes and effects, such risks may not be foreseeable at the disaster preparedness level, and may only be observed at the time of disaster response. This creates a higher level of complexity and requires new approaches with individual organizations and members needing to make decisions outside predefined frameworks and hierarchical command control structures while still operating in the ethos of their organizations. This study advocates the need for disaster preparedness strategies to go beyond linear approaches to risk management. This is necessary in order to better address complex interdependent risks where such risks may be novel or unforeseen and which may connect in a cascading manner. The resulting causal network needs to be addressed with a networked approach to enrich existing linear approaches by recognizing the need for an interconnected holistic approach to deal appropriately with interconnected risk factors. This paper Lakes an interpretive perspective rather than the more typical positivist one System of Systems (SUS) and complex systems thinking were used to inform a sense making framework to distinguish between approaches to known/knowable and unknown risks. Finally, the paper reports on how this framework was used in South Australia on three different scales of the SoS: community, NGOs and government. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TRL of the proposed solution - Innovation stage (if applicable) Not applicable

Web addresses/URL of flyers and information 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.05.001

Expected/scheduled future developments

published in 2014

Generic comments

-